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Prediction for CME (2024-03-10T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-10T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29555/-1
CME Note: Second of two overlapping consecutive faint CMEs in the NW, partially obscured by a pylon in SOHO LASCO C3 and not seen in STEREO A COR2 because of a data gap. One possible source could be an eruption east of AR 3603 centered around N13W23 seen after 2024-03-10T22:45Z in AIA 304/193/171, with small-area but deep dimming and localized bright post-eruptive arcades. Alternative source could be a very minor opening of field lines on/behind the NW limb after 2024-03-10T21:30Z seen in AIA 193. No CME arrival signature in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-14T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29559/1
Model Inputs:
2024-03-10T23:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=23.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=438.0, HalfAngle=19.0, Time21.5=2024-03-11T06:15Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-03-14T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-14T05:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240311_061500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 62.25 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-03-11T19:45Z

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